ETF Market Technical Analysis 3-01-2010
Markets rallied higher and extended to the upside. The Euro is showing stabilization which is helping stocks rally. All indexes have an opportunity to reach their January highs if they can take advantage of today's rally. Better volume would help as todays raly was about 2/3rds of the normal volume of the last three months and that isn't saying much since the volume in general has been poor. See the video for details. Next video update on Wednesday the 3rd but I'll be posting here before then.
ETF Market Technical Analysis 2-25-2010
Markets on hourly charts are making lower highs and lower lows but one more lower low is need to believe in the decline. The Euro may be stabilizing which would likely reverse stock declines. The interplay between the two will probably define the market action over the next few days. Euro stabilization will also stabilize stocks but if the Euro continues to fall it will likely drag stocks down with it. The VIX for the first time has also put in a lower high and a higher high will hurt stocks as well. See the video for details. Next video update on Tuesday the 2nd but I'll be posting here before then.
ETF Market Technical Analysis 2-23-2010
Markets reverse to the dowside and complete the first half of a reversal pattern. Confirmation over the next three sessions will confirm a change in market sentiment and momentum. All the major indexes fell as well as OIL and the dollar rallied. Some sectors look particularly fragile. See the video for details. Next video update on Thursday the 25th but I'll be posting here before then.
ETF Market Technical Analysis 2-22-2010
Maket rally runs out of steam today but no reversal pattern is present. The next few days will be critical as OIL is at resistance and EUR/USD is showing support. The traditional market interplay may come undone in the short term. I am also watching China which has not rallied in February. Next video update on Thursday the 25th but I'll be posting here before then.
ETF Market Technical Analysis 2-16-2010
Markets rallied continue off the hammer of February 8th on SPY and now the 3 day chart is exhibiting a Morning Star Reversal off the bottom of its twenty period Keltner Channel. The five period Keltner has flattened on SPY's 3 Day Chart but still with a bearish cross. With more room to move higher on a fibonacci retracement and the Euro with a Hammer reversal equities look like they have more room to run on the upside.
3 Day Chart
1 Day Chart
1 Day Chart
ETF Market Technical Analysis 2-11-2010
Markets rose today but finished with two different stories. The large cap ETF SPY rose to the top end of its channel and stopped while the small cap ETF Russell 2000 broke out of its range. Since the prevailing winds of equities are driven by the dollar I think the EUR/USD relationship may be the tiebreaker. The EUR/USD found more resistance today and fell below 1.37. A fall below 1.3575 will lead another leg down in stocks. See charts below:
ETF Market Technical Analysis 2-10-2010
Markets haven't broken their downtrend and the weakness continues. Today's close on SPY created a doji and the high was near the upper band of our channel. No signals from the Sea Lion indicator as the action has been consolidating price on SPY and IWM. Now that we have touched the upper boundry of our channel and retreated I anticipate lower prices. Eurodollar is consolidating. See the charts below:
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-29-2010
Markets continue their retreat after the reversal patterns never completed. We have moved some of our stops as per the Sea Lion Capital Indicator rules and are still long on SH,QID,SCO,and DUG all of which rose today. See the charts below...
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-28-2010
Markets sold off today and many of the potential candlestick pattern reversal we have been watching failed. The Sea Lion Indicator produced many long signals on inverse ETFs and we opened positions on SH, QID, and DUG. The US Dollar and UUP are breaking out. See the charts below...
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-27-2010
Markets rebounded a little today and the candlestick patterns continue to point to a near term reversal to the upside. We still hold SCO which gained 2% today and we raised our stop again. The next video blog will be Tuesday February 2nd but as usual I will be posting daily.
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-26-2010
Markets couldn't hold their mid day gains but that didn't change the prognosis. The candlestick indicators I pointed out yesterday are still in play and have been reinforced. This could be a base building proces for a rebound but follow through will be needed. Our SCO position earned 1.69% back and did make a new high. We raised our stop and will be watching all markets to see if the candlestick reversal patterns fail or we get reversals.
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-25-2010
Markets rebounded today but finished off their highs. Our SCO position lost 2.5% today but still remained above our stop. Our stop was raised today to $15.16 (see chart). The candlestick pattern left by todays action in SCO as well as in the S&P ETF SPY are called Harami. A Hammer was put in by the Russell 2000 ETF IWM and the Powershares ETF QQQQ placed in a spinning top on 38.2% fibonacci resistance. While all these patterns need confirmation they do set up for a reversal - perhaps we will get follow through tomorrow (or not). Whichever way it breaks will setup the short term direction of the market.
Response to comment on Seeking Alpha 1-24-2010
Thanks to Royboy1979 on Seeking Alpha for sharing his experience with SCO. We still hold the position and I wanted to share where I think Crude Oil is going in the big picture. Look at the Commodity iPath ETN OIL in the charts below. Price has now broken a median line from the lows and backtested. The symmetric triangle is narrowing but there is no guarantee of a bounce with the MACD making lower highs and heading for the zero line. I would not be surprised to see OIL fall further and using Fibonacci retracements I have identified some possible near term support levels. Thanks Royboy1979!
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-22-2010
Markets fell hard on Friday and the bleeding is probably not over. Our position in SCO spiked 4.8% today with the fall of oil - stop stays where it is. Russell 2000 ETF IWM touched critical support at 61.21 but rebounded and held. S&P ETF SPY stopped at the 50% retracement mark near 109.15 and Currency ETF UUP could not exceed 23.21 and break out. The Proshares ETF QQQQ broke recent support as well. All markets have broken through important support but each has more potential downside. Next video blog is Wednesday the 27th. See the charts below:
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-21-2010
Markets sold off across the board today with the S&P ETF SPY/IVV falling about 2% today and the Powershares ETF Nasdaq-1000 QQQQ falling about 1%. The Currency ETF UUP was flat and the Crude Oil ETN OIL fell 1.8%. We opened a position in SCO when our indicator gave us the long signal. Details are in the video blog as well as illustrations of the broken bearish rising wedges we have been following. We identify horizontal support/resistance levels as well as fibonacci retracement levels. Technical market analysis and the Sea Lion indicator guide our success. All the details are in the video. Next video blog will be Wednesday the 27th but I will be posting daily between now and then.
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-20-2010
The S&P ETF SPY and IVV each stopped at crtitical resistance and fell over 1% today. The SPY bearish rising wedge still stands with this afternoon's retracement however the IWM Russell 2000 ETF has already broken its wedge. The Powershares ETF QQQQ is also maintaining its rising wedge as is the international ETF EEM (Emerging Markets). The Currency ETF UUP (US Dollar Up) finished retracing its recent rally and popped higher today. If the dollar continues to strengthen and a few more indexes and/or sectors break their bearish rising wedges a significant correction will start. See the charts below.
S&P ETF SPY Bearish Rising Wedge
Russell 2000 IWM Bearish Rising Wedge broken
Powershares ETF QQQQ Bearish Rising Wedge
Currency ETF UUP Retracement and Pop
ETF Technical Market Analysis 1-19-2010
The S&P ETF SPY and/or IVV grew 1.25% today and
returned to critical resistance. The ETF SPY can be
seen in the chart below with resistance at $115.06.
See chart of resistance and of the bearish rising wedge.
The Proshares ETF RXL soared more than 4% today. The
chart of XLV and is attached since the real market mover
today is the Mass. election and healthcare. With the
likelihood of Obamacare being derailed the healthcare ETF
XLV rocketed up today (see chart) but no long signal for
now. The only long signal is EWJ which we just sold and it
looks toppy (see chart). For the rally to continue earning
surprises need to abound especially on the top line.
Next ETF Technical Market Analysis video blog is on
Thursday the 21st but I will be posting tomorrow.
SPY at
resistance
SPY bearish rising
wedge
XLV pops
today
EWJ looks
toppy
ETF Market Technical Analysis Update 1-14-2010
As we examine the S&P ETF "SPY" we have a long signal on the Aroon but not on the Keltner Channels. With the rising market virtually all Index ETFs are above their Simple Moving Average. The same is true of other Index ETFs because they have been rising with little momentum. We did get a long signal on an International ETF, EWJ (Japan) and are in the black early. In the video below I review the trades closed this week and the other SPDR ETF tickers I am watching. I think you will find the technical analysis charts interesting. The next video blog will be Thursday the 21st but I will be posting here as well between now and then.
ETF Market Technical Analysis Update 1-13-2010
Markets rallied back but may have put in a lower high -
we'll probably know by close on Friday. We opened a
position in EWJ (Japan) today which I will talk about on
the Thursday video. Meanwhile I wanted to share two
charts I have been watching. The LOG chart of the
S&P500 from the 2007 peak. Look at how the
downward trendline runs through the area we are now.
The other is the rising bearish wedge in the S&P ETF
SPY, an Index ETF, that has been developing since
early July. Come back for the video blog tomorrow.
Long term chart
showing declining trend line
ETF Market Technical Analysis Update 1-12-2010
Markets and commodities sold off across the board. Was this a one time event or the beginning of the correction everyone believes is due. Time will tell. The SPY ETF and IVV (S&P 500)each sold off by more than 1% today and IWM (Russell 2000 small caps). Our stops on XLB and EWY were both hit today with XLB yielding a 1% profit while EWY had a .7% loss. Volume was better today than most days recently. Volume = conviction. We will be watching for new signals from the Aroon and Keltner Channels. Next Video Market Blog Update on Thursday the 14th.
